The Crossover Point has been reached.  Ring the bell.

It's a significant moment in a symbolic sense.

I said that I couldn't help but think that Reform and Farage were a busted flush.  Well, Conservative support has now passed Reform's.

Nigel Farage and his team seem grumpy and unhappy.

First, the poorly attended Pre-Budget event at Lindley Hall with Farage and Robert Jenrick speaking to a near-empty room with Farage taking a swipe in public at his team for that.

Then he didn't turn up in the Commons for the Budget itself to prevent "physical altercation" which seemed like a barely credible lie.

Take a look at the polling:

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

What this shows is a trend, not a blip. Reform falling away, Tories on the rise.

And Kemi Badenoch certainly looks like someone with the wind in her sails.

Following the Conference season, the Conservatives are going to have to work hard to keep this up though and get anywhere near Labour. They need more and more striking policies to show they have a better plan that delivers more quickly an improvement in the standard of living for all.

And they need to hope that Labour doesn't benefit people's lives as quickly as is needed.

Right now, 'give Labour/Andy Burnham a chance' is the mood of the county.  But is that only until the next General Election?

Andy Burnham's premiership has shown a sustained increase in party popularity.

That's come in part from the Greens shooting themselves in the foot with Zack Polanski being absent from the party Conference passing the motion "Zionism is a form of racism" to fight his by-election - another barely credible lie.

But it's also come from Andy Burnham's genuine honesty about things the country needs to consider (to which I think the country's broad response is 'he might have a point there') and a willingness to be a little bit bold - on Care, on Europe.

What Labour is lacking is a much bolder plan in some key areas: Economic Growth, Defence Spending, funding Care, and addressing the Welfare bill. Any senior leader in business or politics will tell you: get the big bold stuff done early; your political capital only erodes over time.

If the economy becomes more benign in the next couple of years - the Iran conflict resolves, oil flows more freely, inflation falls back, bank and mortgage rates reduce - Labour might just benefit from something not of their own making.

But that's a big gamble.  It would be better to get on the front foot and be a master of their own destiny if they want to win with a healthy majority.

Sorry, I haven't mentioned the Lib Dems.  That's because they remain stalled on 10%.  Ed Davey, you need to set out some more striking policies.  I commend to you my Health and Wellness Levy https://joelhagan.com/post/5ff43f0b-8755-4965-b231-6fde5b76717c for a start.

𝚃𝚑𝚎 𝙾𝚗𝚎 𝙼𝚊𝚗 𝚃𝚑𝚒𝚗𝚔 𝚃𝚊𝚗𝚔